The Working Group Schedule of Milestones is:
2007-05 HTML5 and Web Forms 2.0 specs adopted as basis for review
2007-11 HTML Design Principles First Public Working Draft
2008-02 HTML5 First Public Working Draft
2009-11 HTML5 Last Call Working Draft
* or is it Q1 2010?
2010-12? HTML5 Candidate Recommendation
2012-01? HTML5 Proposed Recommendation
2012-03? HTML5 Recommendation
Note: The future dates in the above list are estimates based on the schedule in the charter and are subject to change.
Reference: HTML Ľ HTML Working Group
If you look through the email@example.com Mail Archives
(This is the mailing list of the W3C HTML Working Group, chartered in March 2007.) you will see that there still quite a few outstanding issues before this becomes a recommendation.
If you look at the editors for the HTML 5 Working Draft
they are: Ian Hickson, Google, Inc. and David Hyatt, Apple, Inc.