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  #1  
Old 02-25-2012, 01:18 PM
Franc Tireur Franc Tireur is offline
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A New Recession Seems Inevitable

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While most economists have stopped worrying that the U.S. will fall into a double-dip recession, one influential economist maintains his position that the nation won't be able to avoid a new downturn.

Lakshman Achuthan, co-founder of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, said on Friday that his research firm is sticking with the forecast it made in September: A new recession is inevitable, despite improvement in high-profile economic indicators, such as job creation and unemployment, and a stock market rally.

ECRI is one of the more widely respected firms on economic recessions, as it has never been wrong when forecasting that a recession would start, or failed to predict a recession well before it was widely accepted.

Achuthan predicts the recession will happen even without a new shock to the economy, such as a spike in oil and gas prices or a Greek sovereign debt default sparking a financial meltdown. If those things occur, he says they will simply make an inevitable recession more painful.
http://money.cnn.com/2012/02/24/news....htm?iid=HP_LN

I thought that the economy was doing better, now we are going back to the starting line?
 
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  #2  
Old 02-25-2012, 05:10 PM
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Natural,

You have watched enough economic videos on the tube and posted the links here, to know we are in deep do do.

When you inflate the money supply the way the current administration has inflation is inevitable. That stifles real growth. The absence of growth is decline.

That inflation factor is one real reason why the cost of crude has gone up. The average Democrat in America may be too naive to understand but the guys who have the oil know that next year's dollar will be worth a lot less so they want to be paid at the 'discounted' value.
 
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Old 02-25-2012, 05:31 PM
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This is can be a self fully prophecy. The more we sit here and pass along stories about potential troubles and bad news the more likely we are to encounter those troubles. If people would stop listening to the bad news spouting talking heads, one sided media and the negative nuts in the world and looked around with their own eyes at all the good things going on, we would be a lot better off.
 
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  #4  
Old 02-25-2012, 05:51 PM
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Doesn't have to be a recession that is coming. Stagflation is equally likely. I also don't believe it's a matter of self fulfilling prophecy. Some of the bad news reflect our grim reality. A lot of important issues had not yet been resolved. The negativity has a certain foundation, but the outcome and the consequences mostly revolve on the actions (or lack of) of the governments. Actually, the first stage of recovery (when seen from historical perspective) always starts in bad times. It's anybody's guess what option will become a reality. One can only speculate

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In economics, stagflation is a situation in which the inflation rate is high and the economic growth rate slows down and unemployment remains steadily high. It raises a dilemma for economic policy since actions designed to lower inflation or reduce unemployment may actually worsen economic growth.
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation
 
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  #5  
Old 02-25-2012, 07:11 PM
Franc Tireur Franc Tireur is offline
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Originally Posted by ScriptMan View Post
Natural,

You have watched enough economic videos on the tube and posted the links here, to know we are in deep do do.

When you inflate the money supply the way the current administration has inflation is inevitable. That stifles real growth. The absence of growth is decline.

That inflation factor is one real reason why the cost of crude has gone up. The average Democrat in America may be too naive to understand but the guys who have the oil know that next year's dollar will be worth a lot less so they want to be paid at the 'discounted' value.
ScriptMan you crack me up lol

Seriously right now there is a big fight between the USA and China to win the devaluation currency war.

One thing we must know is that the system is based on debt which generate inflation, perhaps the hyperinflation is coming and fatally destroy the curency.

The Federal Reserve is the economic tool against the poor and the middle class via inflation because it is a shadow tax. The worse is that wages never follow the real inflation rate which also destroy the buying power.

I am not economist, but If you follow the reasoning of some independent credible expert like Bob Chapman and many others, we are in a downward spiral.
 
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Old 02-25-2012, 07:20 PM
Franc Tireur Franc Tireur is offline
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Originally Posted by kju385 View Post
Doesn't have to be a recession that is coming. Stagflation is equally likely.
You will see that many other Europeen countries like Greece will go in recession, because right now the Europeen debts are estimated around 7 trillions dollars. The bad news is that they don't have the money to fix all the countries in troubles and there are great chances it will collapse before the Europeen countries get out of the Euro zone.
 
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Old 02-25-2012, 07:45 PM
Nealrm Nealrm is offline
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The economy is more about public impression that government policy. Yes the government can do this to nudge it this way and that, but in general the mood of the public will be the major force. A public with a negative outlook will have a recession. The public will slow down spending, employers will slow down hiring and project will be postponed all base on a pessimistic view of the future.

If the public is optimistic they will spend more, employers will hire more and companies will take on more projects.
 
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Old 02-25-2012, 08:01 PM
Franc Tireur Franc Tireur is offline
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Originally Posted by kju385 View Post
Some of the bad news reflect our grim reality. A lot of important issues had not yet been resolved.
Europe's lost decade as $7 trillion loan crunch looms
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/c...nch-looms.html

Quote:
Actually, the first stage of recovery (when seen from historical perspective) always starts in bad times. It's anybody's guess what option will become a reality.
They are too far deep to resolve anything like it is now. The only solution is giving back the right to all governments to print their own money at 0%, and avoid borrowing on the international markets at skyrocket interest rate.
 
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  #9  
Old 02-25-2012, 08:15 PM
Franc Tireur Franc Tireur is offline
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Originally Posted by Nealrm View Post
The economy is more about public impression that government policy. Yes the government can do this to nudge it this way and that, but in general the mood of the public will be the major force. A public with a negative outlook will have a recession. The public will slow down spending, employers will slow down hiring and project will be postponed all base on a pessimistic view of the future.

If the public is optimistic they will spend more, employers will hire more and companies will take on more projects.
Something for you to read if you are interested on this subject:

Stop The Pillaging of America http://theinternationalforecaster.co...ing_of_America
 
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  #10  
Old 02-25-2012, 08:38 PM
Nealrm Nealrm is offline
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Something for you to read if you are interested on this subject:

Stop The Pillaging of America http://theinternationalforecaster.co...ing_of_America
I read it. It reminded me of the X-files but with less ties to reality.
 
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  #11  
Old 02-25-2012, 09:28 PM
Franc Tireur Franc Tireur is offline
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Originally Posted by Nealrm View Post
It reminded me of the X-files but with less ties to reality.
Are you a fan of Chris Carter?
 
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  #12  
Old 02-25-2012, 09:54 PM
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Everyone's waiting on the Greek issue to work its way through. There are a number of countries who are border line at the moment, though some of these have been in this state since the 2008 GFC.

The US and UK are both still volatile, and some Euro countries have been walking the tightrope for some time.

It'll be a while before everything is back to normal, especially given how each of the major countries economy's are so tied together through trade and fiscal activities.
 
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  #13  
Old 02-26-2012, 10:29 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Natural Elements View Post
You will see that many other Europeen countries like Greece will go in recession, because right now the Europeen debts are estimated around 7 trillions dollars. The bad news is that they don't have the money to fix all the countries in troubles and there are great chances it will collapse before the Europeen countries get out of the Euro zone.
Again, this is as valid speculation as stagflation. The Europed will not fall apart, but it will surely change. You are good with assumptions but you can't see the forest from trees. Let me explain on the example you've given.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Natural Elements View Post
Europe's lost decade as $7 trillion loan crunch looms
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/c...nch-looms.html
The very article contains a possible solution. And another thing you keep missing is the fact the recovery is a matter of time, not will. All the crises function the same natural way, it's only the question how to deal with immidiate consequences.

Quote:
The ECB can of course save Euroland, if it is willing to launch stimulus a l’outrance with bond purchases near 20pc of GDP -- like the Bank of England. A reflation policy would undoubtedly lift the South off the reefs, perhaps by targeting M3 growth of 5pc in Italy and Spain for three years. It would allow EMU laggards to claw their way to back to viability.
 
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  #14  
Old 02-26-2012, 10:31 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nealrm View Post
The economy is more about public impression that government policy. Yes the government can do this to nudge it this way and that, but in general the mood of the public will be the major force. A public with a negative outlook will have a recession. The public will slow down spending, employers will slow down hiring and project will be postponed all base on a pessimistic view of the future.

If the public is optimistic they will spend more, employers will hire more and companies will take on more projects.
Imho, it's about both. Positive thinking will come naturally when people start to feel some slight signs of improvement in their lives. You can take a look on the business cycle clock. It always goes in the same direction.

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cac...1/xdis_en.html
 
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Old 02-26-2012, 12:02 PM
Franc Tireur Franc Tireur is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kju385 View Post
You are good with assumptions but you can't see the forest from trees. Let me explain on the example you've given.

The very article contains a possible solution. And another thing you keep missing is the fact the recovery is a matter of time, not will. All the crises function the same natural way, it's only the question how to deal with immidiate consequences.
There are no facts that the recovery is a matter of time if the Euro zone if isn't broken apart, I am wondering who makes assumptions there...

Do you really know what they are doing right now in the Euro zone? The whealthiest Europeen countries are borrowing money to patch their economic mess and also help the other Europeen countries in troubles.

It is like someone heavily in debt borrowing money to help a friend broke. I don't see how you can have a recovery like that.

Oh yes you can have a recovery but at what price? If you steal (austerity) all the people ressources, assets, and money. Hey you know what they are doing in France? they want to raise the VAT and they are talking about a Social VAT on the top of that.

That's why the socialism will never work, over taxing is a good way to smother the whole economy of a country.
 
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  #16  
Old 02-26-2012, 12:42 PM
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A new recession is inevitable, despite improvement in high-profile economic indicators, such as job creation and unemployment, and a stock market rally.
Well, it is an advance in itself they concluded the last one reached a conclusion ... cyclical trends once set in motion tend to maintain their course.

The select committee ??? were unable to resolve their differences - so - there is a possible chance the 2.5 trillion $$$ mandatory reduction in spending will by law be enforced - Defense budget proposal the current Administration sent to Congress begins that process.

The R 2003 Tax legislation will expire beginning 2013 - depending on the reelection of the present Administration it will not be renewed but altered to their policies to increase revenues.

The above coupled with the continued expansion of the present recovery easily would dispel any retrenchment in the American economy.

Inflation is not inevitable "due to the stimulus" and will be a positive sign the recovery is not only continuing but on a healthy path of sustained growth when initially detected.
 
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  #17  
Old 02-26-2012, 12:48 PM
Franc Tireur Franc Tireur is offline
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Originally Posted by Breeze Wood View Post
Inflation is not inevitable "due to the stimulus" and will be a positive sign the recovery is not only continuing but on a healthy path of sustained growth when initially detected.
There is no positive sign for the people when there is inflation which is a shadow tax and buying power destruction.

I don't know how you can say that it is a health path of sustained growth.
 
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  #18  
Old 02-26-2012, 01:08 PM
Franc Tireur Franc Tireur is offline
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[YT]UQoS-7jMke4[/YT]

Listen to the Greek Professor interviewed on what austerity means.
 
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  #19  
Old 02-26-2012, 01:19 PM
Franc Tireur Franc Tireur is offline
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One of my favorite politician

[YT]3hnBW9w5MEQ[/YT]
 
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  #20  
Old 02-26-2012, 05:48 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Natural Elements View Post
There are no facts that the recovery is a matter of time if the Euro zone if isn't broken apart, I am wondering who makes assumptions there...
Have you looked business cycle clock on the link I've posted? This isn't the first crisis eurozone faced nor the first crisis which national economies of which eurozone is composed of have faced. You seem predetermined that it must fail. Which is a fair opinion. But an opinion or a personal speculation, not fact as you are trying to point out. Socialism paralel from the american point of view would stand for EU even in the good times. Again, take a look at the business cycle clock, if for nothing else, you have US in it as well. History tends to repeat itself. And yes, governments have been known to harm their citizens in order to recover. That is the reason why nobody really likes politicians

Quote:
Originally Posted by Natural Elements View Post
It is like someone heavily in debt borrowing money to help a friend broke. I don't see how you can have a recovery like that.
There are two mistakes with this example. First of all, "someone heavily in debt" here can create all the amount of money which they please. That changes, well everything. Second, our definitions of recovery and growth obviously differ. There is no such thing as sustainable growth. It is an oxymoron, an illusion.
 
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