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Old 09-10-2013, 05:18 PM
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Is there a new Global Warming/Climate Change Status?

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Despite the original forecasts, major climate research centres now accept that there has been a “pause” in global warming since 1997.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/env...cientists.html

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The rebound from 2012’s record low comes six years after the BBC reported that global warming would leave the Arctic ice-free in summer by 2013.
Instead, days before the annual autumn re-freeze is due to begin, an unbroken ice sheet more than half the size of Europe already stretches from the Canadian islands to Russia’s northern shores.


http://www.forbes.com/sites/peterfer...oling-is-here/
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Old 09-10-2013, 05:26 PM
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Another one to consider:

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The truth is that scientists aren’t really sure why there hasn’t been a hurricane yet this season, nor do they know why an intense hurricane — Category 3, 4, 5 — hasn’t made landfall in the U.S. since Wilma all the way back in 2005. (Sandy, for all the damage it did, was barely a Category 1 storm by the time it made landfall along the East Coast.) And as Andrew Revkin reported in the New York Times, leaked drafts of the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) seem to reflect a reduced scientific certainty that global warming will make storms stronger and more frequent. In the 2007 report, the IPCC said that it was more likely than not — a greater than 50% certainty in the panel’s terminology — that human activity was contributing to an observed intensification of hurricane activity in some parts of the world. Now the IPCC — or at least the draft — says it has “low confidence” of that relationship, which means it believes that there is only a 2-out-of-10 chance of being correct. The estimated probability that the 21st century will see more intense hurricane activity has fallen as well.
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Old 09-10-2013, 05:38 PM
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For a couple of reasons, I don't find this surprising.

First, when it really comes down to it, we're still babes in the woods, in regard to understanding the formation of both climate and weather. Predictions are based upon previous occurrences, and the deviation in coherent patterns in weather are so broad as to defy definition as statistical patterns.

Second, I always thought there was too much knee-jerk reaction to the climate change issue, on both sides of the fence. Scientists and the denial crowd both jumped too fast, IMO, without solid data on which to base their respective cases.
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Old 09-10-2013, 05:52 PM
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Originally Posted by DocSheldon View Post
For a couple of reasons, I don't find this surprising.

First, when it really comes down to it, we're still babes in the woods, in regard to understanding the formation of both climate and weather. Predictions are based upon previous occurrences, and the deviation in coherent patterns in weather are so broad as to defy definition as statistical patterns.

Second, I always thought there was too much knee-jerk reaction to the climate change issue, on both sides of the fence. Scientists and the denial crowd both jumped too fast, IMO, without solid data on which to base their respective cases.
This I know is not EVERY case but there is so much politics and money involved in the entire Climate Change issue that there is not really a way to hear or see the real data through all of the garble in the middle
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Old 09-10-2013, 06:02 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TechWizard View Post
This I know is not EVERY case but there is so much politics and money involved in the entire Climate Change issue that there is not really a way to hear or see the real data through all of the garble in the middle
You're hard-pressed to find ANY issue these days that isn't heavily influenced by some political or financial interest.

The more interest, the more influence... and with that, a LOT more garble.
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Old 09-11-2013, 04:27 AM
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All the while, real science takes a back seat to the political, economical, maniacal forces.
 
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Old 09-11-2013, 12:52 PM
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The belief in Global Warming/Climate Change is almost a religion for most people... so you have to throw religious forces into the pot as well.

I remember reading a UN climatology report that stated the real data didn't match the mathematical models. He was measuring in the high atmosphere and in the ocean.

He suggested that a solution to all our ills was in providing every woman with a microwave and a lightbulb. (And I assume the infrastructure to power these two items.)

I wish that I had printed it out - he was from a University in the US. Amazingly enough, I can't seem to find it.

(I'm good at remembering scientific studies and this was particularly striking so I'm not quoting the onion.)

I had looked the article up in response to someone who was DUMBFOUNDED that I didn't BELIEVE IN GLOBAL WARMING.

Seriously?

Some folks have even theorized that man-made global warming may have averted a mini ice-age. A mini ice age that may have made the Dark Ages what they were.... cold and sad, full of starving people.

Who knows?

I'm just a big believer in real science. The kind they teach to 5th graders at Science Fairs. Not the kind of science that starts with the end in mind and finds the math and the data to support it. Seeing science through a filter of world view is bound to lead to flawed conclusions.

OH!! Guess what I learned last week!! Before 1880, there was no mention of Columbus and his compatriots and the government thinking the world was flat. People have known the world was round back to at least the Greeks. This assertion was a myth created primarily by a couple of authors in the early '80's who wanted to create a myth that all religious people thought the world was flat and were really, really stupid. They wanted to start a war between science and religion.

Funny. That would never happen today.
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Old 09-11-2013, 12:59 PM
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We should just do it for the children.


That pretty much summarizes my entire atttiude on the whole bogus issue.
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Old 09-11-2013, 03:47 PM
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Going through College Psychology classes I learned among other things that even when the scientific model is added the bias of those doing the research still dominates the model. The human ego plays such a large roll it is difficult to really know just how much of any study is manipulated by something as simple as tunneled vision via ego not even going to the point of money and politics.

As a computer tech the last thing I want to be is wrong in a diagnoses or have to admit that I spent a couple hours on a problem that was actually something else The truth of all matters be it science or simple every day functioning there are none of us that are perfect, none of us that have all knowledge, and even though we view something as being fact the possible variables with the discovery of new knowledge (egads!) even fact is open to interpretation and environmental variables.

Those that think they know everything (have a complete understanding) can learn nothing else nor see anything differently. Those people can not be taught and can no longer grow or improve as a person.

As previously I mentioned, famous philosophers/psychologists such a Sigmund Freud, Jean Piaget, B.F. Skinner and unlimited others while brilliant were only so as far as their ego allowed them to be. Different paradigms of thought from behaviorism, cognitive psychology and so on, each had their own view and often violently refused to consider any others. Costing us decades in advancement in their field. While you would think nearly a century later this petty behavior and perspective would have dissipated through a maturing society the truth of the matter is that it remains quite prominent if not even more so now than back then.
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Old 09-11-2013, 07:31 PM
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I read in an article from yahoo, that the world is cooling compare to the previous years because of something is happening on the Pacific Ocean but after that period, the temperature will rise again. Gonna check again that article!
 
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Old 09-11-2013, 08:15 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CMRaper View Post
I read in an article from yahoo, that the world is cooling compare to the previous years because of something is happening on the Pacific Ocean but after that period, the temperature will rise again. Gonna check again that article!
There in goes the thing, the larger effect of the climate is a cyclic process. I hear tell it's something that has been happening for a few billion years.
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Old 09-11-2013, 08:27 PM
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What we take away from the information is actually more the point I believe. Perspective is actually everything.

Take for example:

Some will say that since the news agencies that are publishing the stories about the increased polar cap are the Telegraph, Fox News and the like that is the anti-Global Warming group just spreading more anti global warming rhetoric....in a different perspective those familiar with Yahoo would say that they are only posting stories like the one you mentioned to help the Global Warming alarmists to save face since every single model they have been touting for the last decade+ are being proven completely wrong. It was this year I believe that the polar ice caps were supposed to be nonexistant from melting?

So which perspective is actually right? There in is found the $200 question. Most likely the one that is correct in each person's perspective is the one that comes closest to supporting their personal beliefs. Science probably has little to do with influencing that decision. Of course as it was mentioned earlier, science is little more a lot of times than a submitted theory that has been figured out how to be supported rather than a theory submitted and then everything done in order to attempt to prove it wrong, everything is done in order to prove it, kind of a backwards and ineffective approach that leads to modeling practices that just don't work.

Even if the whether does begin to warm up after 15 or so years who's to say it won't start cooling again in another 15 or 20? The models can't even predict how many hurricanes are going to be this year, or explain why there hasn't been any large hurricanes i.e. category 4 or 5 since 2005 even though several have been predicted based on.....global warming trends.
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