I'm going to suggest something here which I think is going to be pretty controversial and I'd like to hear your feedback.
I've observed over the last few months that Google seems to have loosened its definition of what the nofollow attribute actually means. In the past it has literally meant "ignore this link completely", then Matt Cutts announced in
this blog post that for some time Google have been counting nofollow links as pagerank sinks (ie pagerank flows into them, it just doesn't go anywhere).
What I'm suggesting is that they may have made another alteration to the meaning of "nofollow" - What I think they're probably doing at the moment is counting a nofollow link as nothing at the moment it is created, and then the longer it stays online, the more pagerank flows over it, until some fixed point where a nofollow link is basically as good as a dofollow one.
Why would they do this? Well, nofollow was originally conceived to allow people to control the amount of link spam they received in comments, and for sites like Wikipedia to discourage people from spamming wiki articles with links. Basically, it's a spam control measure.
But let's take Wikipedia as an example - there's lots of links at the bottom of Wikipedia articles that are in fact valuable 'votes' in favour of the sites they link to. If the link has remained live on a Wikipedia article for a number of months, it's likely that the many people who've reviewed that article do indeed think that the link is valuable and not spam. Does it not therefore make sense for Google to count those links as pagerank votes? Could Google in fact be missing out on quite a lot of valuable ranking information by not including those links in its pagerank calculations?
What evidence do I have for this?
Well, it's mostly anecdotal - the most concrete thing I have is that Wikipedia links have started being included in the 'External links' section of Google's webmaster tools - has anyone else noticed this? Furthermore, I've noticed that other nofollow links have started showing up here as well, but they take considerably longer to show up than dofollow links.
It's just a hunch really, but I'd like to hear your feedback.